Russia, the EU and Brexit.... the assumption is wrong

There is an assumption that Russia wants Brexit because it will weaken the forces opposing it. This is wrong.

Russian resurgence has done very well out of the EU. Putin knows that within the EU there is very little appetite for, or consensus on, tackling an aggressive Russia. It is partly witnessing this that has emboldened Russia. Whilst the EU is provoking Russia with its ambition, European countries are quite happy to hide behind the call for 'EU action' as an excuse to do nothing themselves since they know they can scupper the very prospect. It is a rather unfortunate combination that plays right into Putin's hands. Consequently, this leaves us with countries who traditionally have been willing to do more but, who don't because they also are rolled up into the 'integrated' response rather than leading by example and energetically  trying to build willing coalitions. The EU has thus become a rather convenient way to pass the buck on a nation's responsibilities.

Of course the EU see this and thus argue for more power. Clearly the ambition is to have an EU army and security apparatus to give real teeth and clarity of response. However, whilst the EU overrides national sovereignty it is not democratic and is unlikely to ever be so. That an unwilling nation might have to commit  its citizens to military action after being forced by qualified majority voting takes us back to the days of demotivated ethnic Czechs serving in the Austro-Hungarian army. In effect the more integrated the EU becomes, the more disunity of action there will be  because the more demotivated and detached its citizens become from the grand ideals. In this way we can clearly see that international co-operation is far more potent a force than supra-nationalism which the Russians know only too well. In any case, there is presently no  EU army and we must deal with the present. Integration has currently achieved a point where it has undermined cooperation but not yet replaced it.

So for Russia, an independent Britain, no longer hiding behind the inaction of others  would be a far more unpalatable prospect as, historically Britain has been one of the few countries that has been willing to confront Russia. So no, the Russians do not want Brexit. They want the UK exactly where it is; in a divided toothless union that is inward looking, preoccupied with the squabbles of integration and which allows everyone to talk tough and quietly excuse themselves from doing anything.