Russia, the EU and Brexit.... the assumption is wrong

There is an assumption that Russia wants Brexit because it will weaken the forces opposing it. This is wrong.

Russian resurgence has done very well out of the EU. Putin knows that within the EU there is very little appetite for, or consensus on, tackling an aggressive Russia. It is partly witnessing this that has emboldened Russia. Whilst the EU is provoking Russia with its ambition, European countries are quite happy to hide behind the call for 'EU action' as an excuse to do nothing themselves since they know they can scupper the very prospect. It is a rather unfortunate combination that plays right into Putin's hands. Consequently, this leaves us with countries who traditionally have been willing to do more but, who don't because they also are rolled up into the 'integrated' response rather than leading by example and energetically  trying to build willing coalitions. The EU has thus become a rather convenient way to pass the buck on a nation's responsibilities.

Of course the EU see this and thus argue for more power. Clearly the ambition is to have an EU army and security apparatus to give real teeth and clarity of response. However, whilst the EU overrides national sovereignty it is not democratic and is unlikely to ever be so. That an unwilling nation might have to commit  its citizens to military action after being forced by qualified majority voting takes us back to the days of demotivated ethnic Czechs serving in the Austro-Hungarian army. In effect the more integrated the EU becomes, the more disunity of action there will be  because the more demotivated and detached its citizens become from the grand ideals. In this way we can clearly see that international co-operation is far more potent a force than supra-nationalism which the Russians know only too well. In any case, there is presently no  EU army and we must deal with the present. Integration has currently achieved a point where it has undermined cooperation but not yet replaced it.

So for Russia, an independent Britain, no longer hiding behind the inaction of others  would be a far more unpalatable prospect as, historically Britain has been one of the few countries that has been willing to confront Russia. So no, the Russians do not want Brexit. They want the UK exactly where it is; in a divided toothless union that is inward looking, preoccupied with the squabbles of integration and which allows everyone to talk tough and quietly excuse themselves from doing anything.

In today's Telegraph General Richards is quoted as saying:

'While Afghanistan is not the template on which to base the future, it is most certainly a signpost for much of what that future might contain.'

That may well be true but it could just as likely be a red herring. Before the first world war, and to an extent between the wars, the British army was reorganised to fight small conflicts in the corners of empire. This left them wanting when the real challenge came.

Czech elections - a vote for the future

For a country that has had democracy for only 20 years, the Czech Republic's election result showed a real sense of sophistication.

The Social Democrats, promising big government and all the hand outs that go with a client state had been widely expected to achieve a dominant position in the elections, especially since the main right wing part, the Civic Democrats, have been in meltdown. However, two other new right wing parties entered the fray and rather than votes being won by the left they simply were transferred to other similar, yet fresher alternatives. The result was a clear mandate for a right of centre government focused on public spending cuts and a smaller state.

It may come as a surprise to those in the UK that in Czech young people our predominately supporters of the right. This makes perfect sense. And it is not simply a reaction to generations of authoritarian socialist rule. Rather it is because, if you believe in the future success of your own endeavours there is no need to believe in big government.

It shows a tragic lack of national and individual optimism that so many in Britain have chosen the welfare state model as their idea of the future, even though years of Labour have proved it can only be delivered by stealing from future generations.

Constitution not strong enough to contain loons like brown

There is a real problem with the British constitution if it is down to the PM when he goes.

This must change.

Labour: the totalitarian party

Labour have no respect for the electorate we can see that as clear as anything today. How can a party with less than 30% of the popular vote lay any claim to leading the next government?

Labour were quite happy to govern with 36% of the vote and the incidental large tally of seats it gave them up until now but when the conservatives get 36% which yield a hung parliament they use it to justify their grasp on power.

Any chance of a dignified death of this labour government is now finished.

One thing this has shown is that the British 'constitution' does not work well when those within it do not behave decently and with dignity.

A coup de grace must be administered swiftly but the fact that little can be done shows that too much rests with the prime-minister. There are too many grey areas and the current situation is the stuff of failed states.

Perhaps labour's behaviour will show the conservatives that reform IS necessary after all.

Final leaders debate and what will happen post election

So the polls are in and suggest Cameron came out of the debate ahead.
But will the conservatives be able to get that overall majority? At best it will be a small one so my guess is this:

Even if Cameron does get an overall majority, the scale of the economic problem is so huge and the measures required so painful that they will want to share the responsibility. Therefore regardless of a majority it's my guess that the conservatives will make some sort of offer to the Libdems; not a full blown coalition, rather an economic war cabinet.

Education

Education (education, education): This one goes to 11... Remember Spinal Tap and the amplifier that went to 11? The ever increasing numbers of A grades has led to the need for an A*; the 11 of the education system. Grade inflation, as with all inflation, might give the illusion that you are better off but, to all but the most dim-witted the truth is perfectly clear.

Employers and universities can’t differentiate on the basis of school qualifications any more and many even with supposedly good grades are woefully under educated. This author even heard a teacher once say that it was good thing A-levels are easier now as it means they are more accessible. I would rather say meaningless.